Preview: Germany face off with Paraguay in Round of 32

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By Karl Matchett

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Final tune-up and questions of Wirtz

Germany have had a fairly steady start to the tournament despite that last-game hiccup against Ecuador. But while creativity has been on show at times, they haven’t looked the full package – hit on the counter-attack an awful lot, and outfought for long stretches against Ivory Coast. Julian Nagelsmann hasn’t appeared too concerned as yet, confident his side will improve as the competition goes on, but there’s only so long you can ease your way in – and the knockout stage has a habit of punishing slack habits.

One of the more surprising repeat criticisms has gone the way of Florian Wirtz; while he certainly hasn’t dominated matches non-stop, he has been a key part of Germany’s fluid attack and created the joint-highest (8) shooting chances in the squad. Only three players have more assists at the World Cup than his two from three games, and he ranks ahead of 98% of other attacking midfielders and wingers at the tournament for touches. His involvement isn’t in question, only his decisive impact.

There’s no doubt he needs a key showing in a big game to be considered one of the overall stars, but in terms of Germany’s performers? Nagelsmann will feel there are others who need to show more if his side are to get much further than the last 16, with a potential meeting with France next in line.

Overachievement or set for a surprise?

As for Paraguay, it could be argued they’ve ticked the “job done” box by getting out of the groups. Sure, they reached the quarter-finals back in 2010 – but then failed to qualify for three successive World Cups since, so a win over Türkiye was a long-overdue return to prominence. It’s hard to argue, though, that they’ve put together much to suggest they could cause a knockout shock here.

They were trounced by the US and held by Australia – even in their win it was a hit-and-run affair, losing by 32 shots to 7, 78% possession to 22, 2.2xG to 0.3…but scoring the actual goal which mattered.

Recent form

Germany beat Finland and the US before the tournament, then racked up a 7-1 win over Curaçao to kick things off. Since then it has been two turnaround results: winning from behind late against Ivory Coast, and the reverse to lose to Ecuador. Paraguay won, lost and drew in the groups and lost to Morocco pre-tournament.

Team news

Nico Schlotterbeck is out of the World Cup with injury.

Omar Alderete is a serious doubt for Paraguay and Diego Gómez is suspended but Miguel Almirón is back from his ban.

Key player

Jamal Musiala hasn’t hit top gear yet but with a much-changed Paraguayan core, his off-ball movement will be key here. He’s completed 9 dribbles and won 25 duels so far, plus had 21 touches in the box – all top 5% for attacking midfielders at the tournament.

Predicted Germany line-up

Prediction

Germany to push on and secure a convincing win – and raise the stakes for the last 16: Germany 3-1 Paraguay.

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(Cover image from IMAGO)

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